Dubai Real Estate
Market Report
An institutional-grade monthly analysis of the Dubai residential and commercial real estate market. June is best characterised as a volume rebound with continued price cooling — a two-speed re-acceleration. After May's buyer–seller standoff, registered transaction activity surged back (combined volume +35% MoM; cash-sale volume +31%), led by affordable and off-plan stock. At the same time, achievable prices kept easing: the Property Monitor Dynamic Price Index slipped to 231.51 — its lowest reading since mid-2025, ~1.5% below the October-2025/March-2026 peak — and the majority of community median prices printed negative month-over-month. Liquidity and end-user participation returned faster than pricing power.
This report is prepared by Elite Merit Real Estate for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation regarding any investment decision. Data is sourced from Dubai Land Department registered transaction exports, Property Monitor market intelligence (Dynamic Price Index full monthly series, Sales Index, Rentals Index, segment, developer and commercial statistics), Elite Merit proprietary analysis, and supplemental research from Dubai Land Department, Gulf News, Arabian Business, Property Monitor, Fortune, Engel & Völkers, Mitchell's Commercial Realty and GlobalPropertyGuide.
Pricing uses AED per square foot as the primary equalising metric. Oqood = off-plan; Title Deed = ready. Gift transfers are excluded from pricing analysis. DLD area-list exports are de-duplicated using the "by Project" grouping; community rankings use parent-area rows only (see Methodology for the full reconciliation note). The PMDPI is published with a one-month lag — its latest datapoint is May 2026 (231.51). Gross rental yields are indicative, triangulated from cross-validated external benchmarks. Communities with fewer than ~20 transactions are flagged for statistical caution. June's MoM volume gains are measured against a depressed May base and should be read as a recovery in activity; the combined-value dip reflects May's one-off mortgage inflation, not weakening demand.
The full disclaimer, including risk factors and liability disclaimers, appears at the end of the report.
Two-Speed: Volume Up, Prices Cooling
June was a rebound month for activity. After May's buyer–seller standoff — when sales fell around 19% — transactions surged back: combined registered volume rose 35% MoM, cash-sale volume 31%, and mortgage registrations 49%. Roughly 18,600 properties changed hands, worth AED 48.0 billion. But the recovery has a clear character: it was led by affordable and off-plan stock, the average cash ticket fell to AED 2.37M, and prices kept easing. Many more deals, broader participation, softer pricing — a two-speed market where volume recovers ahead of price.
Liquidity Returned Decisively
Cash volume +31%, mortgage volume +49%, gift volume +37% MoM. The rebound was led by affordable and off-plan stock — Madinat Al Mataar recorded 2,577 cash deals and Azizi registered 3,388 transactions. The return of mortgage-financed buyers is the healthiest signal: genuine end-user confidence, not just off-plan speculation.
Achievable Prices Kept Easing
The PMDPI slipped to 231.51 — a second consecutive monthly decline, ~1.5% below the Oct-2025/Mar-2026 peak of 235.03 — and the majority of community median prices printed negative MoM. Prime apartments led the declines (Madinat Jumeirah Living −6.66%, JBR −4.21%, Bluewaters −4.17%); value apartments and prime villas still gained.
May vs June — Liquidity Returns
DLD area-list exports on the de-duplicated basis (by-project files; see Methodology for the reconciliation). Combined Cash + Mortgage + Gift across all property types (land, building/villa, units). June's mortgage book is far cleaner than May's — the largest single mortgage is AED 0.39B (Nad Al Shiba Third), versus May's two ~AED 7B land-collateral mega-entries.
| Metric | May 2026 | June 2026 | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Sales Value | AED 29.43B | AED 32.63B | +10.9% | Cleanest value metric — genuine growth |
| Cash Sales Volume | 10,475 | 13,758 | +31.3% | Standoff broke; liquidity returned |
| Mortgage Value | AED 17.51B | AED 10.54B | −39.8% | May was land-collateral inflated |
| Mortgage Volume | 2,586 | 3,861 | +49.3% | Financed end-users returned |
| Gift Value | AED 4.80B | AED 4.87B | +1.5% | Steady wealth restructuring |
| Gift Volume | 737 | 1,012 | +37.3% | Estate activity broadened |
| Combined Value | AED 51.74B | AED 48.04B | −7.2% | Artefact of May's mortgage inflation |
| Combined Volume | 13,798 | 18,631 | +35.0% | Headline rebound |
PMDPI: A Shallow, Orderly Cooling — Not a Reversal
New this month: the full monthly Property Monitor Dynamic Price Index series. The PMDPI is a fully automated house-price index based on the three-month moving-average median price per sq ft across 42 Dubai master communities, indexed to 100 (January 2008). After peaking at 235.03 in October 2025 (matched again in March 2026), the index has drifted lower for two consecutive months to 231.51 — roughly 1.5% below the peak. Annual growth remains positive at +4.78%.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| All-residential average (Title Deed + Oqood) | AED 1,752/sqft |
| Apartment average (combined) | AED 1,812/sqft |
| Villa average (combined) | AED 1,988/sqft |
| Townhouse average (combined) | AED 1,069/sqft |
| Title Deed (ready) average | AED 1,498/sqft |
| Oqood (off-plan) average | AED 1,836/sqft |
Trend Read
The index tells a clear story: after peaking at 235.03, the PMDPI has drifted lower for two consecutive months to 231.51 — a shallow, orderly cooling of roughly 1.5% from the peak, not a reversal. Annual growth remains positive (+4.78%). Set against June's sharp volume rebound (Section 01), this confirms a two-speed market: activity re-accelerating while achievable prices consolidate.
Community Corroboration
The community-level Sales Index (Section 12) corroborates the index read — the majority of communities posted negative month-over-month median-price changes in June even as deal counts surged. Prime waterfront apartments show the sharpest medium-term corrections; prime villas and value apartments remain the pockets of positive momentum.
Off-Plan 74.7% — Ready Market Gains a Touch of Share
Off-plan share eased marginally (May ~75.5% → June ~74.7%) — the ready market picked up slightly as end-user/mortgage activity recovered, but off-plan still dominates roughly three-to-one. Property Monitor's residential dataset independently confirms the DLD rebound: combined residential volume rose +32% and value +15% MoM.
| Segment | Volume (TD) | Value (TD) | AED/sqft (TD) | Volume (Oqood) | Value (Oqood) | AED/sqft (Oqood) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3,164 | AED 7.97B | 1,498 | 9,386 | AED 17.32B | 1,836 |
| Apartment | 2,327 | AED 4.05B | 1,581 | 8,657 | AED 12.94B | 1,874 |
| Villa | 237 | AED 2.51B | 2,227 | 223 | AED 2.65B | 1,809 |
| Townhouse | 600 | AED 1.42B | 963 | 506 | AED 1.73B | 1,194 |
| Metric | Title Deed (Ready) | Oqood (Off-Plan) | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volume share | 3,164 (25.3%) | 9,386 (74.7%) | ~3× Oqood |
| Total value | AED 7.97B | AED 17.32B | ~68% of residential value |
| Avg transaction | AED 2,519,114 | AED 1,844,869 | Smaller off-plan tickets |
| Avg AED/sqft | 1,498 | 1,836 | ~23% Oqood premium |
| Metric | May 2026 | June 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Combined residential volume | 9,498 | 12,550 | +32.1% |
| Combined residential value | AED 21.95B | AED 25.29B | +15.2% |
| Apartment volume | 8,463 | 10,984 | +29.8% |
Compact Stock Anchors the Rebound
Property Monitor combined apartment segment (Title Deed + Oqood), June 2026: 10,984 transactions / AED 16.98B / avg AED 1,812/sqft. Apartments are the liquidity engine (~88% of residential transactions), and June's rebound was concentrated in the compact core.
| Configuration | Transactions | Share | Avg Price (TD) | Avg Price (Oqood) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studio | 4,304 | 39.2% | AED 700,596 | AED 693,201 |
| 1 Bedroom | 4,052 | 36.9% | AED 1,174,786 | AED 1,417,971 |
| 2 Bedroom | 2,080 | 18.9% | AED 2,284,161 | AED 2,528,510 |
| 3 Bedroom | 471 | 4.3% | AED 4,126,393 | AED 4,870,351 |
| 4 Bedroom | 57 | 0.5% | AED 9,123,398 | AED 20,987,158 |
| 5 Bedroom | 7 | 0.1% | AED 23,820,000 | AED 135,000,000 |
Apartments, Villas & Townhouses — Side By Side
Three Title-Deed (ready) segments, switchable via tabs. Apartments are the liquidity engine, villas anchor wealth-shelter pricing, and townhouses — whose ready volume nearly doubled this month — are the accessible family pathway.
| Bedroom Type | Transactions | Avg Price (AED) | Avg AED/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|
| Studio | 536 | 700,596 | 1,446 |
| 1 Bedroom | 938 | 1,174,786 | 1,462 |
| 2 Bedroom | 659 | 2,284,161 | 1,701 |
| 3 Bedroom | 156 | 4,126,393 | 2,005 |
| 4 Bedroom | 33 | 9,123,398 | 2,424 |
| 5 Bedroom | 5 | 23,820,000 | 3,668 |
| Bedroom Type | Transactions | Avg Price (AED) | Avg AED/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Bedroom | 5 | 6,880,000 | 2,558 |
| 3 Bedroom | 43 | 5,894,760 | 1,751 |
| 4 Bedroom | 56 | 9,899,459 | 2,278 |
| 5 Bedroom | 44 | 13,867,787 | 2,496 |
| 6 Bedroom | 16 | 23,431,188 | 2,504 |
| 7 Bedroom | 1 | 10,500,000 | 1,457 |
| Bedroom Type | Transactions | Avg Price (AED) | Avg AED/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bedroom | 4 | 730,650 | 1,037 |
| 2 Bedroom | 26 | 3,124,114 | 1,820 |
| 3 Bedroom | 248 | 2,318,455 | 1,028 |
| 4 Bedroom | 282 | 2,111,502 | 803 |
| 5 Bedroom | 24 | 3,786,625 | 1,197 |
| 6 Bedroom | 5 | 3,693,600 | 1,013 |
| 7 Bedroom | 2 | 9,625,000 | 1,285 |
May → June: Gainers & Losers
Property Monitor Sales Index, community-level median AED/sqft, "last-month" column (May 2026 → June 2026). In June the majority of communities printed negative month-over-month median-price changes, with prime apartments leading the declines. Gains concentrated in value/mid apartments and select prime villas. Small-sample communities are flagged with an asterisk.
Where June's Cash Concentrated
DLD Cash (Sale) by-project export. "Non-Project" entries denote land/whole-asset registrations outside a named development — episodic, not broad demand. Click column headers to sort.
| Project | Properties | Total Value (AED M) | Avg per Unit (AED) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Um Suqaim First (Non-Project) | 5 | 735 | 147,000,000 |
| ELTIERA VIEWS | 254 | 699 | 2,752,000 |
| Business Park (Non-Project) | 1 | 575 | 575,000,000 |
| AZIZI VENICE 14 | 731 | 558 | 763,000 |
| Cedarwood Estates | 22 | 466 | 21,182,000 |
| Saih Shuaib 3 (Non-Project) | 4 | 459 | 114,750,000 |
| Dubai Industrial City (Non-Project) | 10 | 436 | 43,600,000 |
| Eden Hills | 8 | 380 | 47,500,000 |
| Hayat 1 | 72 | 364 | 5,056,000 |
| Bugatti Residences by Binghatti | 5 | 352 | 70,400,000 |
| THE MERIVA COLLECTION | 49 | 263 | 5,367,000 |
| Lumena Alta by Omniyat | 13 | 252 | 19,385,000 |
AZIZI VENICE 14 — 731 units
Compact, sub-AED 1M off-plan apartment stock (average AED 763K per unit). Up from 508 units in May; the single clearest driver of June's affordable-led rebound. ELTIERA VIEWS (254 units, ~AED 2.75M average) added mid-market breadth.
Bugatti & Lumena Alta
The ultra-luxury branded-residence segment stayed active at the top — Bugatti Residences by Binghatti at AED 70.4M average per unit and Lumena Alta by Omniyat at AED 19.4M. Cedarwood Estates and Eden Hills carried premium villa/estate demand in the AED 21–48M-per-home range.
Non-Project Parcels
Um Suqaim First, Business Park, Saih Shuaib 3 and Dubai Industrial City are large single-asset land registrations (AED 44M–575M per line) — episodic transactions, not indicative of broad demand.
Madinat Al Mataar — The Volume Epicentre
DLD by-Community exports, parent-area rows only (child-project rows excluded to avoid double-counting). Madinat Al Mataar (Dubai South / Al Maktoum airport corridor) recorded 2,577 cash deals — driven by AZIZI VENICE and adjacent affordable off-plan supply — embodying the affordable-led nature of June's rebound.
| Community | Properties | Total Value (AED M) | Avg Price (AED) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madinat Al Mataar Volume epicentre | 2,577 | 2,757 | 1,070,000 |
| Business Bay | 472 | 2,203 | 4,667,000 |
| Jumeirah Village Circle | 763 | 1,008 | 1,321,000 |
| Business Park | 139 | 854 | 6,144,000 |
| Palm Jumeirah | 91 | 842 | 9,253,000 |
| Al Thanyah Fifth | 288 | 831 | 2,885,000 |
| Palm Deira | 214 | 812 | 3,794,000 |
| Burj Khalifa | 154 | 788 | 5,117,000 |
| Al Hebiah Fifth | 366 | 784 | 2,142,000 |
| Jabal Ali First | 539 | 776 | 1,440,000 |
| Community | Properties | Total Value (AED M) |
|---|---|---|
| Business Bay | 252 | 645 |
| Palm Jumeirah | 48 | 490 |
| Emirates Living | 54 | 453 |
| Dubai Marina | 373 | 448 |
| Nad Al Shiba Third | 12 | 390 |
| Jumeirah Village Circle | 290 | 384 |
| Meydan One | 213 | 355 |
| Dubai Hills | 85 | 320 |
| Al Hebiah Fifth | 143 | 296 |
| Dubai Investment Park First | 22 | 258 |
| Community | Properties | Total Value (AED M) |
|---|---|---|
| Al Mamzer | 2 | 446 |
| Jumeira Bay | 4 | 403 |
| Burj Khalifa | 85 | 246 |
| Business Bay | 79 | 215 |
| Palm Jumeirah | 18 | 211 |
| Palm Deira | 8 | 208 |
| City Walk | 37 | 199 |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 73 | 184 |
| Jabal Ali Industrial First | 5 | 171 |
| Al Satwa | 47 | 128 |
Azizi's Dominance Intensified Dramatically
Property Monitor Developer Statistics (registered Title Deed + Oqood transactions), with developer names provided directly in the export. At 3,388 registrations, Azizi more than doubled its May volume (1,601) and is now more than 4× the next developer. Emaar leads on value (AED 3.44B, avg AED 4,364/sqft) — the barbell persists.
| Rank | Developer | Volume | Total Sales (AED) | Avg AED/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azizi Concentration watch | 3,388 | 2,889,000,000 | 853 |
| 2 | DAMAC Properties | 841 | 1,854,000,000 | ~1,360 |
| 3 | Binghatti | 822 | 1,468,000,000 | 1,786 |
| 4 | Emaar | 789 | 3,443,000,000 | 4,364 |
| 5 | Nakheel | 445 | 1,096,000,000 | 2,462 |
| 6 | Ellington Properties | 438 | 1,263,000,000 | 2,884 |
| 7 | Reportage Real Estate | 343 | 409,000,000 | 1,193 |
| 8 | Wasl | 308 | 967,000,000 | 3,139 |
| 9 | Samana Developers | 273 | 286,000,000 | 1,049 |
| 10 | Imtiaz Developments | 233 | 401,000,000 | 1,721 |
| 11 | Sobha Group | 218 | 607,000,000 | 2,785 |
| Rank | Developer | Volume | Total Sales (AED) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azizi | 3,388 | 2,889,000,000 |
| 2 | Binghatti | 822 | 1,468,000,000 |
| 3 | Emaar | 529 | 1,656,000,000 |
| 4 | DAMAC Properties | 490 | 665,000,000 |
| 5 | Ellington Properties | 438 | 1,263,000,000 |
| 6 | Wasl | 285 | 497,000,000 |
Contracts Up, Rents Softening — Tenant-Favourable
Property Monitor Rentals Index and rental contract statistics (DLD-registered tenancy contracts, June 2026). Rental contract volume rose ~+9.2% MoM (May 32,903 → June 35,920), reinforcing that occupier and end-user demand strengthened alongside the sales rebound — while most communities printed negative last-month rent changes.
| Community | Avg Rent (AED/yr) | Last Month | YoY (12m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Barari | 867,458 | +0.35% | +4.49% |
| Dubai Investments Park | 125,287 | +0.74% | +5.38% |
| Discovery Gardens | 50,256 | +0.70% | +6.40% |
| Al Khail Gate | 51,203 | +0.64% | +2.25% |
| DAMAC Hills 2 | 182,013 | +0.37% | +4.57% |
| Al Jaddaf | 47,541 | +0.21% | +3.34% |
| Al Barsha | 70,138 | −0.86% | +1.08% |
| Arjan | 62,379 | −0.88% | +11.77% |
| Business Bay | 152,890 | −1.90% | −1.23% |
| Dubai Marina | 145,344 | −1.88% | +1.35% |
| DIFC | 197,447 | −2.04% | +0.99% |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 161,381 | −2.05% | +3.70% |
| City Walk | 274,541 | −2.78% | +11.19% |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 211,050 | −3.12% | +1.75% |
| Downtown Dubai | 153,430 | −3.15% | −4.65% |
| Dubai Harbour | 227,091 | −3.10% | −9.19% |
| Community | Avg Rent (AED/yr) | Last Month | YoY (12m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Investments Park Villas *Small sample — statistically unstable | 465,465 | 0.00% | +59.17% |
| Arabian Ranches | 247,268 | 0.00% | +1.42% |
| Al Furjan Villas | 269,406 | +0.20% | −8.15% |
| DAMAC Hills 2 Villas | 106,815 | −0.94% | +3.11% |
| DAMAC Hills Villas | 372,020 | −1.20% | −1.12% |
| Dubai Hills Estate Villas | 308,548 | −2.37% | +1.00% |
| Arabian Ranches 3 | 283,885 | −2.39% | +3.38% |
| DAMAC Lagoons Villas | 228,393 | −4.29% | −30.72% |
Commercial Strengthened Alongside Residential
Property Monitor commercial sales and rental statistics (DLD-registered). Sales reached 1,154 transactions (AED 7.03B), up materially on May, and office/retail continued to command premium per-sqft pricing. Office remains the structural backbone — 18,499 office tenancies in June.
| Segment | Volume | Total Value (AED) | Avg AED/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Overall | 1,154 | 7,029,752,513 | 2,691 |
| Office | 333 | 1,726,703,308 | 3,172 |
| Retail | 145 | 623,632,899 | 3,355 |
| Hotel Apartment | 483 | 645,965,051 | 1,957 |
| Whole Building | 17 | 394,900,003 | 777 |
| Warehouse | 1 | 4,113,239 | 733 |
| Land (commercial) | 91 | 3,186,538,568 | — |
| Basis | Volume | Total Value (AED) | Avg AED/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|
| Title Deed | 391 | 4,750,273,091 | 2,582 |
| Oqood | 763 | 2,279,479,422 | 2,732 |
| Segment | Contracts | Annual Rent (AED) | AED/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Overall | 22,613 | 1,566,288,195 | 124 |
| Office | 18,499 | 942,018,236 | 111 |
| Retail | 2,482 | 334,638,664 | 227 |
| Warehouse | 613 | 113,434,035 | 44 |
| Showroom | 80 | 29,389,383 | 142 |
| Labour Camp | 244 | 21,819,731 | 260 |
| Hotel Apartment | 232 | 27,025,805 | 125 |
Every Community, Every Window
Property Monitor achievable median AED/sqft with 12-month, 6-month, 3-month and 1-month (May→June) change windows. Sortable, searchable, and filterable. Heat-map cells colour each percentage by magnitude. Collapsed by default to the top 15 — click "Show all" to expand. Small-sample prints are flagged. Communities are grouped by primary product per the source data.
| Community | AED/sqft | 12-mo | 6-mo | 3-mo | 1-mo |
|---|
Sentiment Has Largely Normalised
The regional conflict that disrupted sentiment in late February 2026 has receded further and now sits as a minor background risk. June's volume rebound is itself evidence that sentiment has largely normalised.
A minor background risk
The late-February conflict remains technically unresolved, and residual uncertainty still shapes the pace at which participants commit — but it is no longer a material driver of monthly activity. House view: continue to monitor, but do not over-weight.
Strengthening structurally
June's broad rebound — cash, mortgage, and gift volumes all up 30%+ — reflects renewed participation from regional retail investors, resident end-users, and UAE-based corporates. The return of mortgage-financed buyers (+49% volume) is the healthiest signal, indicating end-user confidence rather than purely speculative off-plan flows.
Bank valuations still tight
Bank valuation discipline persists from Q2, keeping financed buyers price-sensitive and reinforcing the affordable/value tilt of current demand. Where a bank values below the agreed price, the buyer covers the gap in cash or walks.
| Indicator | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 DLD transactions | AED 252B, +31% YoY | Strongest opening quarter on record; H1 2026 sustained well above 2025's pace |
| Jan–May 2026 residential sales | ~66,900 recorded | Off-plan capturing ~74% of transactions |
| PMDPI (May 2026) | 231.51 | External commentary: "short-term cooling rather than a significant market reversal" |
| Two-speed dynamic | Volume ▲ / Prices ▼ | Healthy mid-cycle digestion of the 2024–2025 gains rather than a downturn |
| Bank valuation discipline | Persisting from Q2 | Financed buyers price-sensitive; reinforces affordable/value tilt |
What Could Bend the Recovery
Classified by priority. The emerging watch item this month is developer concentration — one launch pipeline now shapes a large share of headline volume.
Eight Conclusions From the June Data
What We Are Watching Into Q3
- 1
Volume Durability (July–September)
Confirm whether June's rebound sustains or was a bounce off a depressed May base. Watch the cash-sale count specifically.
- 2
Price Index Trajectory
Whether the PMDPI stabilises around 231–232 or continues to ease determines if cooling is a pause or a trend.
- 3
Prime Apartment Price Discovery
Jumeirah Bay Island, Madinat Jumeirah Living, Dubai Festival City, Dubai Marina, Downtown — depth of correction sets the market's confidence ceiling.
- 4
Azizi & Off-Plan Absorption
Given the concentration, track Azizi launch cadence, delivery, and sell-through as the primary swing factor for headline volume.
- 5
Mortgage & Bank Valuation Trend
Sustained mortgage-volume strength (ex-land) would confirm an end-user-led recovery; watch lender valuation discipline.
- 6
Rental Direction
Whether the MoM rent softening stabilises through the summer leasing season, and the yield implications.
- 7
Ready-Market Share
A rising Title Deed share would signal a healthier balance between primary and secondary markets.
- 8
Macro
Regional stability, US Federal Reserve trajectory and USD/AED peg affordability effects, and oil-price stability.
Data Treatment & Source Hierarchy
DLD Transaction Figures
Sourced from DLD area-list exports. Headline totals use the de-duplicated basis — the by-project files, equivalently the by-community "parent rows only." The by-community exports list every transaction twice (a community subtotal row plus its nested project rows marked with the "▪/•" symbol), so summing the full column double-counts (≈2× the true total). By-project totals are used for headlines; by-community parent rows for community rankings (Section 08).
Procedure Mapping
Cash/Sale (بيع) = registered cash sales; Mortgage (الرهن) = financed registrations; Gift (هبة) = transfers, excluded from pricing analysis. June's mortgage total is not distorted by mega land-collateral deals (unlike May); its largest single entry is AED 0.39B.
PMDPI
Property Monitor Dynamic Price Index, full monthly series from the House Price Timeline dataset; published with a one-month lag, so the latest datapoint is May 2026 (231.51). MoM/QoQ/YoY computed from the series. Pricing metric throughout: AED per square foot.
MoM Price & Rental Sources
Property Monitor Sales Index "last-month" column (May 2026 → June 2026), median AED/sqft per community. Rental data from the Property Monitor Rentals Index and rental contract statistics. Gross-yield figures are indicative, drawn from cross-validated external benchmarks (the Property Monitor community Yield Index is not provided as a discrete figure this month).
Developer & Third-Party Data
Property Monitor Developer Statistics, with developer names provided directly in the export. Web/third-party context from Dubai Land Department, Gulf News, Arabian Business, Fortune, Engel & Völkers, Mitchell's Commercial Realty, GlobalPropertyGuide. Where folder data and web data cover the same metric on different scopes, both are reported with scope noted rather than blended.
Sample & Comparability Cautions
Communities with fewer than ~20 transactions may show amplified percentage changes and are flagged in-line. June's MoM volume gains are measured against a depressed May base (a consolidation month with ~19% lower sales); read June as a recovery in activity. The combined-value dip reflects May's one-off mortgage inflation, not weakening demand.
Why the headline is AED 32.63B (Cash) and not AED 65.32B. The DLD "by Community/Area" export lists every transaction twice — once as a community subtotal row (parent) and once as the project rows nested beneath it (marked with the "▪/•" symbol, which the export's own footnote defines as "project under community/area"). Selecting and summing the entire Total column therefore adds each transaction twice.
Verified for June: by-project Cash = AED 32.63B / 13,758 properties ≈ by-community parent-rows-only AED 32.66B / 13,767 properties ≈ by-community full column (AED 65.32B) ÷ 2. The same 2× relationship holds for Mortgage (AED 10.54B vs 21.14B) and Gift (AED 4.87B vs 9.73B).
Transactions without a named project (land, some commercial) are retained in the by-project view as explicit "(Non-Project)" line items — e.g., Um Suqaim First (Non-Project), Business Park (Non-Project) — so nothing is dropped. Rule: use by-project (or by-area parent rows only) for totals; use by-area only for community-level breakdowns; never sum the full by-area column.
Liquidity Returns: What It Means for You
Prepared for Elite Merit Real Estate clients, partners, and stakeholders. June was a rebound month for activity — combined registered volume rose 35% MoM, cash-sale volume 31%, and mortgage registrations 49%; roughly 18,600 properties changed hands, worth AED 48.0 billion. But the recovery has a clear character: it was led by affordable and off-plan stock, the average cash ticket fell to AED 2.37M, and prices kept easing. The most encouraging signal is the return of mortgage-financed buyers, up 49% — genuine end-user confidence, not just off-plan speculation. Below, what the two-speed reality means for each client segment.
Value communities still carry the yield story
Rents softened month-over-month across most communities while holding positive year-over-year, and rental supply is rising (contracts +9% MoM) — a tenant-favourable market. Prime apartment rents fell 2–3% MoM (Downtown −3.15%, Dubai Harbour −3.10%, Dubai Hills −3.12%). The strongest gross yields remain in the value segment (7–9%): Al Khail Heights, Dubai Investments Park, Discovery Gardens, DAMAC Hills 2, Liwan.
Momentum sits in value apartments and prime villas
Price momentum has rotated firmly toward value apartments and prime villas. June's strongest single-month gains: Majan +7.84%, Jumeirah Islands +7.27%, Sobha Hartland villas +7.15%, Dubai Water Canal +5.78%, JVT villas +5.76%, Palm Jumeirah Garden Homes +5.49%, Liwan +5.04%. Prime apartments continued to reprice down (Madinat Jumeirah Living −6.66%, JBR −4.21%, Bluewaters −4.17%, Palm Jumeirah −3.74%).
Trophy demand intact, migrating to new supply
The top end stayed active — Bugatti Residences by Binghatti (AED 70.4M avg) and Lumena Alta by Omniyat (AED 19.4M avg) transacted, and prime villas held or rose. Capital continues rotating toward new waterfront and branded supply.
Better on volume, not on price
The selling environment improved on volume but not on price. More buyers are active, and mortgage-financed demand has returned — but they are price-sensitive, and bank valuations remain disciplined (a below-value appraisal means the buyer covers the gap in cash or walks).
Prime-apartment sellers in correcting communities (Madinat Jumeirah Living, JBR, Bluewaters, Palm Jumeirah apartments, DIFC, Dubai Marina, Downtown) should price to the current market and to a bank-supportable valuation. Momentum will not absorb overpricing.
Value and mid-market sellers in communities with positive momentum (Majan, Liwan, Al Khail Heights, Dubai Sports City, Jaddaf Waterfront) have more pricing power and a broader, active buyer pool — use it to transact at fair value.
Villa sellers in firm enclaves (Jumeirah Islands, Sobha Hartland, Palm Jumeirah Garden Homes, DAMAC Hills, The Villa) can hold asking prices; the villa segment is the firmest. Sellers in softening villa communities (The Lakes −7.84%, Dubai Hills villas −3.24%, JGE villas −2.28%) should adjust expectations.
A constructive entry environment
June is a constructive entry environment for end-users. More stock is transacting, financing demand has returned, and prime-apartment pricing continues to offer negotiating room. The market's core is compact stock (studios and 1-beds ~76% of volume; sub-AED 2M dominant).
Value corridor: JVC (AED 1,328/sqft), JVT (AED 1,272), Arjan (AED 1,378), Discovery Gardens (AED 1,006), Dubai Production City (AED 1,018) — competitive entry with strong rental infrastructure.
Premium-lifestyle balance: Dubai Hills Estate (AED 2,352/sqft), Sobha Hartland (AED 2,050), Business Bay (AED 1,881) — prime apartments currently offer the most negotiating room.
Momentum + affordability: Majan (+7.84% MoM), Al Khail Heights (+2.87%), Dubai Sports City (+2.25%), Liwan (+5.04%).
Family buyers are re-engaging — join them selectively
Villas are overwhelmingly premium (ready villa average AED 10.6M); townhouses are the accessible family route (3–4 bed around AED 2.1–2.3M). The near-doubling of ready townhouse sales shows family buyers re-engaging.
Family townhouses: value and mid communities (Town Square, Serena, Villanova, Reem) with re-engaging demand.
Premium family villas: Dubai Hills Estate (AED 2,632/sqft) and Arabian Ranches (AED 2,277) — both eased slightly MoM, a near-term entry window for patient buyers.
Momentum villas: Jumeirah Islands, Sobha Hartland, The Villa, DAMAC Hills — firm and rising.
July–September 2026: Durable Rebound or Bounce?
The summer quarter will show whether June's rebound is durable or a bounce off a depressed base. The highest-signal indicators:
- 1
Transaction velocity
Do volumes hold, or fade back?
- 2
Price index
Does the PMDPI stabilise near 231–232 or keep easing?
- 3
Mortgage strength (ex-land)
Sustained gains confirm an end-user-led recovery.
- 4
Prime apartment price discovery
Depth of the correction sets the confidence ceiling.
- 5
Azizi / off-plan absorption
The concentration makes this the primary swing factor for volume.
- 6
Rental direction
Whether MoM rent softening stabilises through the leasing season.
A Recovery in Volume, Not Yet in Price
June 2026 turned May's standoff into a broad rebound in activity. Registered volume rose about a third month-over-month, driven by affordable and off-plan stock and, encouragingly, by the return of mortgage-financed end-users. Yet the recovery is one-sided: it is a recovery in volume, not yet in price. The Property Monitor Dynamic Price Index eased for a second month to 231.51, and most communities recorded softer median prices — the market is digesting the extraordinary 2024–2025 appreciation even as its liquidity returns.
Strategically, June rewards precision over enthusiasm. Value communities and prime villas carry the price momentum; prime apartments remain in correction and offer the clearest buyer leverage; rents are tenant-favourable; and financing demand is the healthiest signal in the data. The main structural watch item is concentration — a single developer now shapes a large share of headline volume. For Elite Merit and its clients, the message is that the market is open for business again, but on the terms of a maturing cycle: realistic pricing, segment selectivity, and disciplined execution will separate outcomes over the coming quarter.
Terms of Use & Limitations
This document is prepared by Elite Merit Real Estate for informational purposes only and is intended for use by clients, partners, and stakeholders of the firm.
This document does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation to buy or sell any asset, or a recommendation regarding any investment decision. All data, analysis, and commentary contained herein are based on information from the Dubai Land Department (DLD), Property Monitor, and supplemental research from reputable industry sources. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Elite Merit Real Estate does not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or timeliness of the information provided.
All figures are based on registered transactions as of June 2026 (DLD exports and Property Monitor reports generated on or around 1 July 2026) and are subject to revision by the relevant authorities. The Property Monitor Dynamic Price Index is published with a one-month lag; its latest datapoint is May 2026. Month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons reflect the data available at the time of preparation and may be revised. June 2026 month-over-month volume gains are measured against a depressed May 2026 base and should be read as a recovery in activity; the combined-value change reflects a one-off distortion in May's mortgage total.
Certain figures are explicitly flagged as estimated, inferred, indicative, or affected by data-source limitations — including community-level gross rental yields (not provided as discrete figures in this month's source set and therefore triangulated from cross-validated external benchmarks). Community-level metrics based on fewer than approximately 20 transactions are statistically unstable and are flagged in-line; readers should not draw trend conclusions from them.
Real estate markets are subject to significant risks, including but not limited to: market volatility, geopolitical events, regulatory changes, interest rate fluctuations, bank valuation and lending-policy changes, currency risk, liquidity risk, and developer execution and concentration risk. The geopolitical context referenced in this document reflects conditions as understood at the time of publication and may evolve.
Readers are strongly encouraged to seek independent professional advice from licensed financial advisors, legal counsel, and real estate professionals before making any investment, acquisition, or disposal decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Elite Merit Real Estate, its officers, employees, and affiliates disclaim any liability for losses, damages, or consequences arising from reliance on the content of this document.